Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.175979 2.297530 2.428623 2.581738 2.757305 2.954431 3.195658
2025-04-27 2.077572 2.239512 2.422609 2.648580 2.925502 3.262060 3.716755
2025-05-04 1.979589 2.162541 2.375931 2.649506 3.001455 3.456573 4.125909
2025-05-11 1.905133 2.102820 2.339111 2.651591 3.070563 3.643486 4.558925
2025-05-18 1.816795 2.018353 2.263044 2.593233 3.048438 3.695888 4.797225
2025-05-25 1.762000 1.970634 2.228054 2.582970 3.087396 3.837738 5.215052
2025-06-01 1.712092 1.925508 2.192433 2.567283 3.114491 3.962534 5.640025
2025-06-08 1.665894 1.882312 2.156114 2.546739 3.130543 4.069752 6.068337
2025-06-15 1.641205 1.865008 2.152180 2.570057 3.213735 4.302317 6.878230
2025-06-22 1.581696 1.800020 2.081187 2.492445 3.131047 4.225957 6.898653
2025-06-29 1.551921 1.772691 2.059657 2.484995 3.159402 4.358613 7.552936
2025-07-06 1.509571 1.727294 2.011529 2.435463 3.114401 4.343466 7.770192
2025-07-13 1.494771 1.718876 2.015134 2.465163 3.207719 4.628213 9.250703
2025-07-20 1.491223 1.725068 2.038942 2.526652 3.362620 5.085984 12.316866
2025-07-27 1.469054 1.705119 2.024705 2.527789 3.409717 5.314749 15.055346
2025-08-03 1.448603 1.686714 2.011711 2.529757 3.458204 5.562199 19.421667
2025-08-10 1.413290 1.646853 1.966273 2.476984 3.397289 5.508351 20.512353
2025-08-17 1.392443 1.626362 1.948215 2.467692 3.419873 5.690686 27.307392
2025-08-24 1.371336 1.604888 1.927898 2.453472 3.431213 5.846085 39.128699
2025-08-31 1.350077 1.582627 1.905646 2.434834 3.431845 5.971489 64.864870
2025-09-07 1.340832 1.576797 1.907302 2.455988 3.515992 6.394089 NaN
2025-09-14 1.307437 1.536303 1.856197 2.385497 3.401561 6.115037 NaN
2025-09-21 1.292279 1.521216 1.842720 2.378718 3.422614 6.318326 NaN